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Week 13 Playoff Odds & Scenarios

Before we dive into the playoff picture discussion, we have to discuss the story of the season so far, 2 Feets In’s run to become to first team to complete an undefeated championship season. That run came to an end this past weekend in stunning fashion, when basement dwelling 1-10 Lobster Beesc stunned the 11-0 Feets with a narrow victory that was finally capped off on Sunday night with a Justin Tucker field goal. Jacky G’s 11 game win streak to start the year marks the deepest undefeated run since the Commish won 14 straight all the way back in 2006 before finally losing in the playoffs to eventual champion Olsen. In the modern era, it is now the longest win streak to begin a season in history, eclipsing the 10 game win streak that Jay Hey opened the 2010 campaign on. And Jack now holds two of the 4 longest such streaks in League history, with the other being his 8-0 start in 2018. 

Interestingly, none of the teams mentioned above managed to win the Championship, even though they rank among the elite of the elite all time according to League Power Rating and points scored. Jack will try and put an end to that quirk of history just as Meade put an end to his undefeated campaign. The loss may have removed a bit of pressure for Jacky G, who will no longer have to deal with the weight of trying to make history. But now Jack will have to keep the Feets squad sharp and focused even though they have essentially nothing to play for until Christmas. Whether Jack can get the team properly prepped could be the difference between this season ending with his second League Championship or as just another footnote in League history. On to the playoff picture:

Clinching Scenarios:

  • Mark can clinch the CENTRAL with a win
  • Vaf can clinch a WILD CARD with a win OR
    • Brian loss AND
      • Cody loss OR 
      • Nick loss
  • Olsen can clinch a WILD CARD with a win AND
    • Brian loss AND
      • Cody loss OR 
      • Nick loss

Additionally, Cody can clinch at least a tie for the East with a win and a Nick loss. Mark (Jay loss + Cody/Nick loss), Nick (win + BJC loss + Jay loss), Olsen (win -OR- BJC loss + Cody/Nick loss), Brian (win + Cody/Nick loss), and Jay (win + BJC loss + Cody/Nick loss) can clinch at least a tie for a wild card spot.

Elimination Scenarios:

  • Frank is eliminated with a loss OR
    • Brian win OR 
    • Jay win
  • Commish is eliminated with a loss AND
    • Brian win OR
    • Nick win OR
    • Jay win
  • Cody is eliminated with a loss AND
    • Olsen win AND
    • Brian win AND
    • Nick win AND
    • Jay win

Playoff Odds

“Clinch %” means the odds that a team will clinch a playoff spot without a point tiebreaker deciding it, and Tie % means the odds that a team ends up tied for a playoff spot with a points tiebreaker deciding it. Obviously, the more points you have the better your odds of succeeding in that tiebreaker scenario. Tie or Better % means exactly that, percentage chance you either clinch or tie for a playoff spot. Miss % is the odds you are eliminated outright without a chance to win a points tiebreaker.

Once again, we head into the final couple of weeks with a playoff picture that is anything but clear. Jacky G has, of course, clinched the West and the number 1 overall seed. Meade has been eliminated for weeks. Ant is for all practical purposes eliminated as well and 2-time defending champ Frank is on the brink. Other than that, everyone else is very much in the thick of the race and has a reasonable chance at grabbing a postseason spot. Lets start by breaking down the races for the division titles:

East

Nicky Diamonds’ Lemon Grove Avenue squad currently holds the lead in the East by virtue of the points tiebreaker over Cody. Should Nick and Cody end up tied at the end, points will be the deciding factor as both would have the same division record; Diamonds currently holds a pretty sizable but not insurmountable 82 point lead over So Much Honey. To avoid it coming down to a tiebreak, Nick will be rooting for a Commish win this week, while Cody will be rooting for Frank. Should both Nicks grab a win this weekend, the East will be decided by their Week 14 matchup, with the winner taking the division crown. Funny enough, the only one of the three teams still alive in the East that fully controls their own destiny is the one that currently sits in 3rd place. If the Commish wins the next two, he will win the division at 7-7 either outright or through a tiebreak with a 5-1 division record. One loss however would end his division chances.

Week 13 RESULT = WEEK 14 SCENARIO
  • Commish win and Diamonds win = Winner of their Week 14 matchup wins East outright, Cody eliminated from race
  • Commish win and Diamonds loss = Commish wins East outright w/ Week 14 win, Diamonds wins outright w/ win and Cody loss, Cody can force tiebreak with win and Commish loss.
  • Cody win and Diamonds win = Both remain tied going into final week, Commish eliminated from race
  • Cody win and Diamonds loss = Cody wins east outright w/ Week 14 win, Diamonds can force tiebreak w/ win and Cody loss
Central

Marky Mark sits in a commanding position in the Central, needing just a win this week to clinch the division and take pole position in the race for a bye. Things get very interesting if BJC pulls off the upset however. Brian would them takeover the top spot in the division due to the points tiebreaker, and if Jay also wins this week we would have a 3 way tie atop the division. A Mark loss would mean he no longer controls his own destiny in the division, and would need help to reclaim the Central throne even if he managed to fend off Jay in Week 14.

Week 13 RESULT = WEEK 14 SCENARIO
  • Marky Mark win = Mark wins division outright
  • BJC win and Jay win = Jay can win division outright w/ win and BJC loss, BJC can win division outright w/ win and Mark loss, BJC and Mark wins will mean a points tiebreak decides division
  • BJC win and Jay loss = BJC and Mark tied going into final week, Jay eliminated from race.
West

Jack won.

Wild Card
*Percentages shown are in scenarios where team doesn’t win division. GB = Games Behind; PB = Points Behind; WC = Wild Card

Vaf’s win over Olsen last week wound up being massive for his playoff odds, as it all but sealed up a wild card spot for The American Nightmare. The worst case scenario for Vaf would be him losing out and multiple 6-6 teams winning out, but even then he would still be tied for a spot and has a pretty comfortable points cushion. Unless the unthinkable happens, Vaf will be heading back to the postseason for the first time since 2020.

The second of three wild cards is currently held by Olsen, who is trying to end his own six year playoff drought. A win this week and a couple of losses from his competitors would lock it up, and  win by itself would at least ensure that he controls his own destiny heading into Week 14, along with a couple of potential outs should he lose the final game. But if he loses this week, things could get uncomfortably dicey for the team with the longest running playoff drought.

Mark is a pretty heavy favorite to take the division, so a scenario that saw him not win the division means he probably didn’t perform well down the stretch. That’s why the above shows him with only a 10% chance of winning a WC spot outright. However even a bad finish means he will likely still end up in at least a tie for a wild card spot.

BJC has his sights set on the division right now, but there’s a very strong possibility he will have to get in through the wild card route. If he does, it will be difficult for him to win a spot outright and the most likely scenario is he winds up in a tiebreak for one of the final spots. As he leads all wild card contenders in points, he would be in good shape to win a tiebreak. The problem would come with a loss this week and wins by a couple of his fellow 6-6 teams, which would put him a win behind in the standings.

Similar to Brian, it will probably be tough to win a wild card spot outright for Jay (though since his path to the division is more difficult, there are more scenarios where Jay plays well and has to settle for a WC than where BJC plays well and doesn’t win the division). If Jay does end up tied for a spot, he’ll want Brian out of the picture due to the points disadvantage.

The East teams are all in kind of similar boats, where winning enough games to win a WC spot outright means they more they are overwhelmingly likely to have won the division. If they have to get in through the WC, it most likely means Nick or Cody is stuck at 7 wins and will have to win a points tiebreaker. The Commish is mostly out of the WC picture entirely, as getting to 7 wins guarantees him the division, and there is an extremely slim path that would have him alive at 6 wins (the same path that keeps Frank and even Ant technically alive: get to 6 wins, only one team in the East gets to 7, Brian and Jay lose out, and win the points tiebreaker over 3-4ish 6-8 teams).

So there you have it. Another year, another head spinning playoff picture. Good luck to those of you still in the hunt, and we will check back in next week where the picture will likely be much much clearer.

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