We’re back! And with a whole new twist! Over the offseason, the League’s historians went back into the archives and created a log of every game and every season the current League owners have ever played. Then we dug into the statistics and found the average score for each era, and managed to adjust old scores to put them in their current context. Part of this project has resulted in some stuff you’ve already seen, such as the team pages for each owner that I’m continuing to roll out. Later on in the season I’ll finish up The League Record Book, which will be incorporated into the blog as well. But one thing I haven’t really talked about is OPR, which I stole from other leagues while searching around the internet, which should provide us with some great debates going forward.
Basically, OPR, or Overall Power Rating, is a statistic that allows us to compare teams across all the different configurations and scoring settings of The League’s history. Rather then just looking at wins (which can obviously be impacted by luck) or looking at purely points (which doesn’t factor in consistency or managerial decisions such as playing a less volatile or risky player in a matchup you’re favored to win), OPR uses a formula to combine the two, as well as factoring in consistency, to give us a more complete picture of the strength of each team. The formula is 60% average points per game, 20% win percentage, and 20% consistency (comparing high scores and low scores). The score the formula spits out is your OPR.
Later on in the year I’ll make a post about the greatest and worst seasons according to OPR, but for now it should be enough just to say that the League historical average for OPR is 126, the single season high is 173.92, and the single season low is 88.04. Teams who finished the season with an OPR above 142 won the championship 10 out of 20 times.
The power rankings of course are not solely based on OPR, as I take injuries and potential outlook into account. But anyways, on to the rankings:
- Lobster Beesk (3-0, 167.60 OPR, 131.12 ppg) – Meade has had a dream start to the season, running out to a 3-0 record and a 2 game lead in the division. He got a lot of help in Week 2 with a lucky win where he only scored 84 points, but in each of his other two games he topped 150 and had the highest scoring output of the week. The team isn’t perfect, but there’s no glaring weaknesses so far and Christian McCaffrey, Keenan Allen and Evan Engram give him a a strong trio at each of the three skill positions.
- Couple Screws Loose (2-1, 163.54 OPR, 135.37 ppg) – Even with his loss last week, its clear in the early going that Mark has one of The League’s strongest rosters. After a 127 point showing in Week 1, he exploded for 178.62 points in Week 2, a career high. The highlight of the team is obviously the freakishly talented Patrick Mahomes, but OBJ and Godwin bring the big play element and TE Mark Andrews has been a revelation. Mark looks strongly positioned to return to the postseason after last year’s disappointing showing.
- The Meat Mavens (2-1, 141.67 OPR, 113.21 ppg) – The Mavens dropped his first game of the season in Week 3 but got more important news with the return of RB Melvin Gordon from his 3 week holdout. Assuming Gordon returns to form soon, Big Tony will be rolling out the best RB duo in the league with Dalvin Cook and MG3. He takes a bit of a hit in value to JuJu because of the Big Ben injury, but will look to rookie speedster Mecole Hardman to pick up the slack.
- The Undisputed Era (1-2, 130.12 OPR, 118.61 ppg) – Vaf starts the season 1-2, but its hard not to like his rest of season outlook with Julio Jones suddenly turning into a TD machine. Nick Chubb is a firm must start, Brandin Cooks is looking like one of the better WR2 in The League, and Darren Waller has surprisingly been one of the best TEs of the young season. If rookie RB Josh Jacobs can get it going, Vaf has the potential to make some noise.
- The Resistance (2-1, 132.51 OPR, 108.08 ppg) – Its been a roller coaster of a start for Olsen, who signed up for AB’s Wild Ride early on in the draft. While saying that didn’t work out the way he wanted is an understatement, he still stands at 2-1 after taking down Mark last week, with Adam Thielen and Marlon Mack leading the way. If the Jets manage to get their heads out of their asses when Darnold returns, the Bell and Mack pairing could be the engine that powers The Resistance to the playoffs.
- The Pecan Sandies (1-2, 131.49 OPR, 117.49 ppg) – The Commish had a couple of heartbreakers to open the season, dropping his first game to Big Tony by less than half a point and getting saddled with Big Ben’s injury shortened start in Week 2. He finally got into the win column in Week 3 to salvage what could have been a disastrous start with what looks like a pretty solid team. Deandre Hopkins, Amari Cooper and Travis Kelce are as good of a pass-catching trio as any in The League, but the return of Melvin Gordon poses a significant threat to Austin Ekeler’s output. The Commish will need Kerryon Johnson to get rolling to pick up the slack.
- 2 Feets In (2-1, 134.95 OPR, 108.61 ppg) – After a dominant two year stretch it looked like Jacky G was starting to come back down to earth a bit. However, that’s not to say that he didn’t build a strong team certainly capable of doing damage, as evidenced by his 2-1 start. Injuries are starting to pile up for the honeymooning newlywed however. Number one overall pick Saquon Barkley will miss at least a few weeks with a sprained ankle, and TY Hilton will miss at least this week’s game. Jack will have to weather the storm with Mike Evans and whatever else he can scrape together until he gets his team back healthy.
- Scoops Ahoy (1-2, 127.29 OPR, 112.07 ppg) – Jay managed to get his first notch in the win column last week and avoid an 0-3 start, and the arrow is pointing up for Scoops Ahoy. Lamar Jackson has taken the league by storm in the early going, and Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones could rival Ant for top RB duo even when MG3 fully returns to action. When Tyreek Hill returns Jay will feature the most explosive WR group out there with Hill and Lockett. This is a team that could put up some major, major points when everything is clicking and shoot up these rankings very quickly.
- Brainbusters (1-2, 123.41 OPR, 110.01 ppg) – It seems like Brian’s squad has been stuck in neutral in the early-going, not fully living up to its potential. DeShaun Watson is a threat to put up 30+ at any point, Michael Thomas is a beast with or without Brees and Derrick Henry has kept his crazy finish from last year going. What’s been holding Brian back is his secondary guys. Watkins has been quiet since his Week 1 eruption and Sony Michel looks to be losing his grip on the Patriots backfield. Todd Gurley returning to form would be the game changer Brian is looking for.
- Frank The Tank (1-2, 123.12 OPR, 109.23 ppg) – Frank got himself a much-needed W last week and now will look to keep the momentum rolling in a matchup with the 12th-ranked team this week. Rodgers looks like he is getting back into fantasy behemoth form, and Frank still has yet to get the breakout games from Zeke and Ertz. On the bright side, he did get that breakout game from Phillip Lindsay last week, which would be huge if he could be a plug-and-play RB for Frank The Tank. Damiem Williams will be the X-factor for Frank’s team when he returns from injury.
- So Much Honey (1-2, 117.83 OPR, 103.91 ppg) – It hasn’t exactly been a dream title defense for Cody, who has struggled to a 1-2 start out of the gates. He finally got a breakout performance from Davante Adams on Thursday, but its been a very up and down year for most of Cody’s stars, including Chris Carson and Fournette. Mark Ingram, however, has been huge for So Much Honey through the first 3 weeks, and has kept him out of the initial power rankings basement.
- Midnight Rider (1-2, 106.77 OPR, 92.69 ppg) – And in that basement we have the Midnight Rider Nicky Diamonds, Great song, not so great of a team so far. Nick topped 100 points for the first time last week, but still got handed his second defeat. Stefan Diggs has been a major disappointment thus far, and the rest of the squad has been too up and down to do any damage consistently. David Johnson and Joe Mixon will need to find that consistency and live up to their high draft billing to get the Midnight Rider riding in the right direction.