With only 4 weeks left in the season, the playoff picture is slowly starting to round into shape. 1 team has clinched a playoff spot, while another two can do the same with just one more win. Lets take a look at the possible clinching scenarios in Week 10, as well as each team’s odds to reach the dance.
2 Feets In (8-1) – Even though he dropped his first game of the year last week, the reigning champ locked up at least a wild card spot and has assured that his title defense will continue on into the postseason.
Can Clinch This Week:
The Pecan Sandies (7-2) – The Commish can lock up at least a wild card spot this week with a victory over Lobster Beesk. He can clinch the East with a win and losses by So Much Honey and CAN YOU DIGG IT?
Lobster Beesk (7-2) – Meade can punch his ticket to the dance with a win this week over The Pecan Sandies.
The Pecan Sandies (7-2, 3-0 in division) – With a 3 game lead in the division with only 4 games left to play, The Commish holds a commanding position in The East. As noted above, he has an outside opportunity to clinch the division this upcoming week. He has an 89% chance to win The East outright (either by having more wins or finishing in a tie in which he holds the best division record) and an additional 2% chance to finish in a tie with another Eastern team in both overall and division record (points would be the tiebreaker in that scenario). There is an 8% chance that he doesn’t win the division but still secures a wild card spot. Overall, his odds of making the postseason at this point stand around 98%.
So Much Honey (4-5, 2-1 in division) – Cody ended a 4 game losing streak last week, putting him right back in the playoff mix. While he only has about a 6% chance to steal the division, he has a 22% chance to win a wild card spot outright and an additional 29% chance to finished tied for a wild card spot. His overall playoff odds stand at about 37%.
CAN YOU DIGG IT? (4-5, 1-2 in division) – 3 crushing narrow defeats in a row have wrecked havoc on Frankie’s playoff outlook – a win in even one of those games would have put the division race in play and given him a huge leg up in the wild card race. Instead, the losses have dropped his odds of winning the division to around 3%, and his odds of winning a wild card spot outright to 24%. He has a 30% chance of ending up tied for a wild card spot, putting his overall chances of making the playoffs at 37%.
The Knights of Ren (3-6, 0-3 division) – Olsen has no shot of winning the division outright, and a less than 1% chance of winning it in a points tiebreaker. There’s a 5% chance he can clinch a wild card outright, and a 17% chance he can force a tie for a wild card. Overall his playoff odds are 11%.
2 Feets In (8-1, 3-0 in division) – As noted above, Jack has already locked up a playoff spot. He currently holds a one game lead in the division and has a 67% chance to win the Central outright, and a 10% chance to finish in a tie in which the winner of the division will be decided by total points scored on the season. Overall, his odds of winning the division are a little over 73%; if not, he’ll be one of the wild cards.
Lobster Beesk (7-2, 2-1 in division) – Meade is on the doorstep of the postseason. Overall, he has about a 97% chance of winning a playoff spot outright, and a 20% chance of winning the Central outright. His overall odds of winning the division stand at a little over 26%.
Meat Mavens (5-4, 0-3 in division) – Left for dead a mere 5 weeks ago, Big Tony has captained a remarkable turnaround for the Meat Mavens. While his odds of winning the Central are less than 1%, there’s now 64% chance that he’ll secure one of the wild card spots outright, and a 25% chance he’ll end up tied for a wild card spot. Overall, his odds of making the postseason are around 72%.
Bri Wyatt (3-6, 1-2 in division) – BJC is the only team eliminated from a chance at winning his division, but he still has an outside shot at a wild card. There is a 4% chance he could win a playoff spot outright, and a 17% chance he could force at least a tiebreaker. His overall odds are about 9%.
The Demon (4-5, 2-1 in division) – Currently sitting in a tie atop the Wild West, Vaffy’s squad’s best chance at making the postseason is by winning the division, where he has a 41% chance of winning outright and a 4% chance of ending up in a points tiebreaker scenario. The odds of him losing the division but being able to clinch a wild card outright are only 1%. Overall, his odds at the postseason are basically a coin flip – 49%.
The Wild Bunch (4-5, 1-2 in division) – Diamonds is tied for the West lead, but if the season ended today would miss out on winning the division by virtue of his division record. He has a 30% chance to win the division outright, and a 4% chance of ending up in a points tiebreaker; his total division odds are around 32%. Like Vaf, he has slim odds of losing the division race but still winning a wild card spot outright – about 4%. There’s a 21% chance he winds up tied for a wild card spot. Overall his odds of reaching the postseason are about 42%.
Team Thanos (3-6, 3-0 in division) – After sweeping the first round of division play, Team Thanos has dropped an unthinkable 6 straight and is currently a game out of the division lead. He has a 22% chance of winning the division. If he fails to do that, he has only about a 2% chance of securing a wild card spot.
KerryOnMyWaywardSon (2-7, 0-3 in division) – Mark Mark sits on the brink of elimination entering Week 10. He has barely over 1% chance of winning the division, and a less than 1% chance of earning a wild card. His overall playoff odds are about 2.5%.